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【海外視角】美國制度經濟專家尼古拉斯·拉迪(Nicholas Lardy):美國對香港經濟制裁對香港金融中心地位影響極小或者根本不存在
上線日期:2020-12-24 16:10
事件詳情

美國CNBC電視臺的凱利·埃文斯(Kelly Evans)與彼得森制度經濟研究所(Peterson Institute for Institutional Economics)的尼古拉斯·拉迪(Nicholas Lardy)討論了中國對香港的鎮壓行動以及美國對新安全法的潛在反應。

專家採訪原文翻譯:

主持人:彼得森制度經濟研究所(Peterson Institute for Institutional Economics)高級研究員尼古拉斯·拉迪(Nicolas lardy)和安東尼·所羅門(Anthony M Solomon)也是中國的長期觀察者。

尼古拉斯,很高興你在這裏。您對美國可能做出的回應的聲明或行動有何期待?

尼古拉斯:我認為主要的可能性是撤銷香港在美國的貿易地位。這當然是他能夠回應中國將在香港引入的安全法的主要領域之一。那這會產生什麼影響?我認為這太小或者根本不存在。我們沒有從香港購買任何香港製造的東西。香港向我們出口的大部分產品都來自中國和越南以及東南亞國家。

這些商品必須遵守適用於那些國家/地區的商品的關稅。因此,中國商品通過香港出口到美國。如果直接從中國發貨,它們將受到高關稅的限制。我們去年香港貨物運到美國的貨值大約為四億七千五百萬美元,按貿易價值計算大約為零。因此,對此加征關稅不會對香港經濟產生太大影響。

我想更大的問題是關於香港作為全球金融中心的問題,而且我不確定許多美國人是否需要關注這一利益。也許有些金融公司有成千上萬的美國人住在香港。

女主人:(美國可能做出的聲明或行動)是否更多地是要試圖破壞香港作為中國人繁榮的源泉,因為香港已成為中國的一部分。

尼古拉斯:嗯,這可能是總統的一部分想法,或者蓬佩奧國務卿在想的,但坦率地說,我認為這是錯誤的。中國不再太依賴在香港籌集的資金。在20或10年前,香港對於中國來講,非常重要,但如今卻不那麼重要。中國現在有一個龐大的國內股票市場,上市公司可以在這裏籌集資金。

雖然他們中有些人更願意去香港上市籌集資金,但香港作為金融中心的角色已受到削弱,也不會對中國經濟產生重大影響。並且請記住,香港的消亡一遍又一遍地被預測。從1997年開始,它一直是一個非常活躍的金融中心。這是一個支持中國的複雜生態系統。

現在中國不僅有在香港經營的金融公司,還有律師事務所,會計師事務所,信用評級機構。因此,即使國務卿宣佈香港不再是一個自治區,這種基礎設施(如果您願意)也不會在一夜之間消失。

Hostess: By Nicolas lardy the Anthony M Solomon, senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, he is also a long time China watcher.

Nicholas it's good to have you here. What is your expectation about possible announcements or moves that the u.s. might make in response here?

Nicolas: I think the main possibility is a revocation of Hong Kong's trading status in the United States. That's certainly one of the major areas where he could react in response to the security law that china is going to introduce in Hong Kong.

And what would the effect of that be? I think it would be teeny to non-existent. We buy nothing from Hong Kong that is made in Hong Kong. Most of our Hong Kong exports to us comes from China and Vietnam, Southeast Asian countries.

And those goods are subject to the tariffs that apply to goods originating in those countries. So Chinese goods come through Hong Kong. They're already subject to the high tariffs that apply if they're shipped directly from China. Hong Kong goods shipped to the United States, our last year we're about four hundred and seventy five million dollars, which is in trade terms approximately zero. So putting tariffs on that wouldn't have much effect on the Hong Kong economy.

I guess the bigger question is about Hong Kong as a global financial center, and again I'm not sure that's an interest many Americans need to be bothered about. Maybe some financial firms there are tens of thousands of Americans who live in Hong Kong.

Hostess: Is it more about trying to undermine Hong Kong as a source of prosperity for the Chinese as it becomes more a part of China.

Nicolas: Well, that may be part of the president's thinking or secretary Pompeo is thinking, but I think quite frankly it's mistaken. China does not rely very much anymore about funds raised in Hong Kong. Hong Kong was extremely important 20 or 10 years ago, but today not so much. They have a domestic stock market that's huge where their companies can raise money.

Some of them prefer to go to Hong Kong, but even if Hong Kong's role as a financial center was eroded, it would not have a significant effect on the Chinese economy. And keep in mind the demise of Hong Kong a financial center has been forecast over and over again. Starting in 1997 and it's remained a very vibrant financial center. It is a complex ecosystem that supports them.

They not only have the financial firms, they have the legal firms, the accounting firms, the credit rating agencies that are all operating in Hong Kong. So this infrastructure, if you will, this ecosystem will not go away overnight, even if the secretary of state declares that Hong Kong is no longer an autonomous area.